Predictions For the 2012 United States Election.
James Paul Zaworski
The 2012 United States General Election will decide whom the President, Vice-President, the entire House of Representatives, and a significant number of the Senate, will be. The United States is in a state of relative polarity, politically speaking, and with high unemployment, marginal growth, one would think that the incumbent would be suffering a significant setback, but one would be wrong.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, the Democratic incumbent president and the Republican nominee/challenger, are in a statistical “dead heat” on this, the verge of the Democratic National Convention, and on the heels of the recently completed Republican National Convention. The next ten weeks will see the two go “head to head”, in an expected, but yet not fully agreed upon, series of debates.
The respective political campaigns are seeking to define the tone of the election, whether it be about “the issues” or “policy”, a referendum on the Obama presidency, the personal character, the relative experience or inexperience of either candidate, “the record”, healthcare, war, or just whether the voters “like” the particular candidate.
Beyond party affiliation, I do believe that this election will come down to personality and the relative charisma of the candidate. The performance in the debates will likely be crucial: televised live in front of millions of Americans, the undecided “independent” voters will most likely be swayed by not just the performance of the candidates in the debate, but also about their perceived “likability” as well.
My prediction is that Barack Obama will be re-elected as President of the United States of America by a narrow margin in the electoral college, and within one million votes in the popular election. I further venture to predict that the Democrats will retain a very slim majority in the Senate, and the Republicans will retain the majority, but a smaller majority, in the House of Representatives.
Bipartisan dialogue will then have to be the order of the day in order for anything to really get done legislatively. The “fiscal cliff” is looming at year’s end, and the lame duck session of congress will determine whether or not the “do nothing II” congress can do something, and that something is to stop the intransigent, partisan bickering after the election and pass legislation that is good for the United States of America, and not just their respective political party.
--September 5, 2012